CECIMO Statistical Toolbox
The Machine tool industry is very cyclical. To help our members forecast their future activity, CECIMO has developed a tool box, which is updated every month that is comprised of some macro economic indicators that have a strong correlation (over 75%) with orders of machine tools. Besides, CECIMO has created the MT-IX, a monthly index made of the historical series of the market capitalizations of 24 machine tool companies (12 European and 12 non European). CECIMO also tracks quarterly trends in terms of orders and external trade (exports and imports) of machine tools in CECIMO and other large manufacturing countries.
Executive Summary – CECIMO Statistical Toolbox – March 2010
Machine Tool Orders in CECIMO Countries: New upturn observed in the fourth quarter of 2009 ( +42% quarter on quarter, -11% decrease year on year)
Interest Rates – EURIBOR
ð A new decrease in February 2010 to reach an average 0.67% for the first 2 months of the year
ð No real growth expected before the end of 2010 in Europe, whereas interest rates are increasing in the emerging markets. Combined with a decreasing value of the Euro to the US Dollar, this is rather positive for the exports of machine tools manufactured in CECIMO countries
New Orders in Capital Goods in the EU 27: +4% in December 2009 compared with November 2009 (+ 0.8% on average in the industry)
Industrial Production in the Capital Goods Sector
ð +1.5% in the last quarter of 2009 compared with Q3.
ð According to Eurostat, capital goods performed better than the rest of the industry in December 2009
Capacity Utilisation in the Investment Goods Sector
ð From 71.4 (in January 2010) to 71.8 (in February 2010).
ð With a 79% capacity utilisation in Europe, the precision instruments sector may be the first to reach the 80% level, which is traditionally used as an indicator of investment in new machine tools.
Business Confidence in Europe: 97.8 in January 2010 (+ 0.7 month on month à +7 year on year)
PMI index
ð USA and China above global average rates of expansion
ð Global manufacturing employment increased for the second month running (driven by Asia)
ð Input prices continued to increase everywhere
ð The Eurozone PMI is at its 30-month high:
Growth of output and new orders accelerated
Labour market closer to stabilisation
A widening discrepancy between the best and worst performing countries in Europe
M-TIX
The CECIMO Weighted Index rose by 3% in February 2010. The 12-month rolling index grew by 6% from January 2010. On an annual basis (March 2009 - February 2010), this is a 15% decrease. The 94% correlation of the index with the production of machine tools in CECIMO countries may already give us first insight into the 2010 trend of production in CECIMO countries.
Downloads
CECIMO Statistical Toolbox - Updated March 2010
Annexes
Purchasing Managers indices (since December 2009) - Updated Mrch 2010
Machine Tool indicators / Synthesis per country - Updated 8 December 2009
